аЯрЁБс>ўџ 8:ўџџџ7џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅС @ №П!bjbj)) ".KzKzџџџџџџˆV^ ^ ^ ^ z VAюš К К К в ­ ­ ­ РТТТТТТ$/R’цр­ ­ ррцК в лћLLLрњК в РLрРLLLК Ž Аф“ППйЧ^ к.LР0AL.L$>LPœ$­ „1^LLл­ ­ ­ ццVV„к„6VVкBay Street Week Ahead - Gold stocks set to glitter By Robert Melnbardis MONTREAL, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Canada's gold stocks may glitter in the weeks ahead if jittery investors seek a safe haven in producers of the precious metal. The S&P/TSX global gold index (.SPTTGD:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=.SPTTGD" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=.SPTTGD" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=.SPTTGD" Research) closed the past week at 278.84, down slightly from 279.36 the previous week, but almost 10 percent above its year low of 254.04. Spot gold edged higher on Friday to $673 an ounce, as traders said buying interest turned toward the metal. Friday's price was about $100, or 18 percent, above its mid-October low. The rationale behind drilling into gold stocks stems from global economic trends including inflation, swings in currency and stock markets as well as fundamentals in the gold sector. Nervous investors tend to flock to safe-haven investments such as gold bullion during stock market selloffs and when the U.S. dollar declines. Speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve could lower interest rates -- even as central banks in Europe and Japan head the other way -- could pressure the greenback further. That may drive investors deeper into gold bullion, but also into gold stocks, which have underperformed lately and where profits are boosted by higher prices and production. Those already invested in mining may follow recommendations to favor gold over base metals stocks, some of which have been lifted by takeover premiums in the global frenzy for assets. CIBC World Markets is trimming the extent of its overweight position in metals, ex-gold, by a percentage point. "Gold shares have performed better in the last month. We remain modestly overweight the sector given the positive ramifications of expected further declines in the greenback for bullion," wrote Avery Shenfeld, senior economist, in CIBC's Canadian Portfolio Strategy Outlook. As for the fundamentals of the gold sector itself, there has been little significant supply coming on stream in the last year, and no big discoveries unveiled. That could buoy gold prices. Cash costs of production have also risen, pushed mainly by soaring energy prices. SEASONAL UPSWING Haytham Hodaly, senior mining analyst at Salman Partners, says buying into gold stocks has been the right investing strategy for some time now. But where to place bets? Majors, mid-tiers or juniors? "The typical story that everyone flocks to for leverage these days -- there's two, Goldcorp (G.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=G.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=G.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=G.TO" Research) and Kinross (K.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=K.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=K.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=K.TO" Research)," Hodaly told Reuters. "Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=AEM.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=AEM.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=AEM.TO" Research) has an incredible growth profile over the next four to five years, almost 300 percent," he added. As for juniors, Hodaly's top picks are Miramar Mining Corp. (MAE.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=MAE.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=MAE.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=MAE.TO" Research), which is not a producer, but has more than 10 million ounces of gold resources, and Minefinders Corp. (MFL.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=MFL.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=MFL.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=MFL.TO" Research), which should start production in mid-2008. Hodaly noted that Salman has done work for the mining companies he mentioned. Other lesser known factors may help gold stocks shine in the second half of this year. Research Capital analyst Barry Allan says his research suggests that bullion prices have a distinct seasonal pattern. He expects a strengthening of prices in the second half of this year, particularly the fourth quarter. Allan's "buy" recommendations include Barrick Gold (HCX.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=HCX.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=HCX.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=HCX.TO" Research), Goldcorp, Metallica Resources (MR.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=MR.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=MR.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=MR.TO" Research) and Western Goldfields (WGI.TO:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=WGI.TO" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=WGI.TO" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=WGI.TO" Research). Not all are convinced that a rally in gold stocks augurs well for junior miners. At Canaccord Adams, analyst Graeme Currie worries that for mining investors, it took almost a year for the TSX Venture Exchange (.SPCDNX:  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=.SPCDNX" Quote,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=.SPCDNX" Profile,  HYPERLINK "http://www.reuters.com/stocks/researchReports?symbol=.SPCDNX" Research) indexes to recover from levels seen before the May 2006 market correction. Salman's Hodaly, however, expects consolidation in Canada's mining sector to migrate from the major and mid-tier producers to include the smaller firms. "I would expect to see a lot more consolidation with some of the juniors," he said. "In order for them to make more accretive acquisitions, they're going to have to go toward the more junior companies." 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